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America’s Toughest Housing Markets Shifted Red—Here’s Why
An NBC News analysis explores how housing affordability—especially in the toughest housing markets—gave former president Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election.
Vice President Kamala Harris may have been the first (and only) of the two main candidates to address housing during the presidential debate in September, but ultimately her proposals to make housing more affordable to more people weren’t enough to sway voters in battleground states, particularly those where housing affordability is at its lowest.
That’s what the NBC data shows, with counties moving sharply to the right, indicating widespread hope that Trump’s housing policies will do more for them than four more years of the Biden/Harris solution.
This is not an endorsement of the election results. It’s an acknowledgment of what the numbers are telling us about voter behavior in markets where fewer residents can afford to buy a home.
Prospective buyers in these counties used their vote to push back against the prioritization of multifamily rental construction over an increase in single-family for-sale homes. At least, that’s one takeaway from the NBC News Home Buyer Index.
The question now is whether homeownership will, in fact, become more affordable as a result of Trump’s win.
The Housing Crisis and Its Impact on the 2024 Election
While housing wasn’t the only reason voters shifted toward Trump, the data shows voters in the toughest housing markets shifted further right compared to much of the rest of the country.
NBC’s chart shows the red shift in the easiest versus the toughest U.S. housing markets:
Nationwide, counties moved towards Trump by a median of 3.1 percentage points. In the top 10% of counties with the most challenging housing markets, however, the swing was even larger at 4.5 percentage points.
In nearly one-third of these difficult housing counties, the presidential vote was decided by just over one percentage point.
In battleground states—including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—housing affordability struggles played a more significant role in voter behavior.
As Robert Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, put it, “This was economics,” adding that economic hardship among voters—and particularly high housing costs—hurt Democrats in the 2024 election.
Voters were feeling economic hardship to an extent that was not fully appreciated by the Democrats, by the administration. The Harris campaign picked up on it, but it was too little, too late. And the price of housing figures into this heavily. Robert Shapiro – Political Science Professor at Columbia University
NBC News Home Buyer Index: A Measure of Housing Market Challenges
The NBC News Home Buyer Index tracks housing market difficulty across hundreds of American counties (and nationwide) on a scale from 0 to 100. In October 2024, the nationwide index stood at 80.6, which is modestly described as “very difficult.” In some counties, however, the index was significantly higher, indicating severe challenges for prospective homebuyers.
The following counties shifted most significantly toward Trump in this year’s presidential election:
- Passaic County, NJ—one of the toughest markets in the U.S., with a Home Buyer Index score of 85.5. Passaic County voters shifted to Trump by nearly 19 percentage points. At $535,000, median home prices here have almost doubled since 2019.
- Northampton County, PA—with a Home Buyer Index score of 79.0, shifted red by 3 points. Voters here have seen a 75% increase in home prices since 2019 along with drastically reduced for-sale inventory.
Mesa County, Colorado shows a contrary trend with a 5-point shift to the left, despite having a highly competitive housing market.
As Bernard Fraga, an Emory University professor specializing in voter turnout, pointed out, “you can’t separate the price of housing from voters’ general concerns about the state of the economy.”
Housing prices are a substantial part of overall inflation. Any voter who places a high value on homeownership in a market that makes it particularly difficult is more likely to use one of the few levers they have to make it more attainable.
Housing Affordability and Economic Anxiety
It’s not a surprise that housing affordability (or the lack thereof) steered so many voters in this month’s election.
For one, Democratic optimism about the economy—or confidence in what Vice President Harris planned to do to improve it—was in stark contrast to the reality of financial stress voters have experienced in the months and years leading up to the election.
Houses take a considerable amount of time to build. And looking at both candidate’s policies to improve housing affordability, many were more convinced that Trump’s policies could provide real relief within a shorter timeframe. Most, if not all, of Harris’s proposals relied on Congressional approval, which she was unlikely to get (quickly or at all) with a divided Congress.
Trump positioned himself as a force for positive change—in the economy as well as the housing market—while Harris more or less represented a continuation of the status quo.
Trump’s policy relies more on regulatory adjustments and repurposing federal land than on spending billions of dollars to incentivize zoning changes and affordable housing construction. And when it comes down to it, plenty of the voters who leaned red on November 5th were looking at the overall economy and saying, “I don’t want another four years of this!”
Stocks reacted quickly and positively to Trump’s victory. But the bond market has been more cautious as investors brace for a potential increase in government spending, which was likely with either candidate if their party controlled both the House and Senate.
And from the looks of it, after gaining a majority in the Senate, the Republicans look poised to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives, giving Trump the green light to make sweeping changes in both domestic and foreign policy.
Trump’s tariff policy alone will likely drive up the cost of building materials—which in turn would likely increase the price of new construction. And while we all know that we need more inventory, the key is to make that inventory affordable. Plus, as Byron Lazine has pointed out in multiple episodes of The Hot Sheet, federal lands that could potentially be repurposed for affordable housing are mostly in the West, while markets in the Northeast struggle with low housing supply.
It’s not an easy fix for either party. So, will supply increase and home prices stabilize? Or will high housing costs persist throughout Trump’s term and ultimately result in a swing back to blue in 2028?
However, you voted on November 5th, make it a priority to stay informed of housing policy developments in your market. And look for ways to advocate for solutions that make homeownership accessible to more buyers.
Key Details:
- NBC News analysis reveals how housing affordability struggles in key battleground states helped Donald Trump gain an edge in the 2024 presidential election.
- High home prices and tight housing markets pushed voters to favor Trump’s policies over Kamala Harris’s proposals.
- However, economists say some of Trump’s policies, combined with a cautious bond market, could keep housing costs up in 2025.
Posted by Sarah Lentz | Nov 12, 2024 | Housing Market
https://nowbam.com/how-trump-captured-americas-toughest-housing-markets/
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